The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has downgraded their predictions for this 2009 Hurricane season
NOAA Climate Prediction Center now predicts “a 50 percent probability of a near-normal season, a 40 percent probability of a below-normal season, and a 10 percent probability of an above-normal season. Forecasters say there is a 70 percent chance of seven to 11 named storms, of which three to six could become hurricanes, including one to two major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5)”.
The reason for this? El Nino, which “produces stronger upper-level westerly winds over the Caribbean Sea and tropical Atlantic Ocean, which help to reduce hurricane activity by blowing away the tops of growing thunderstorm clouds that would normally lead to tropical storms”.
They are quick to add that this calm start to the 2009 Hurricane season in no way means that this is going to be a calm season.
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